Soybean Supply/Demand Report - November 2010
[Title Slide - Soybean Supply/Demand Report. Your Arkansas Soybean Podcast, University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, Arkansas Soybean Promotion Board.]
[Narrator - Video showing a combines and trucks in a soybean field harvesting.] Soybean prices are up sharply on Tuesday's U.S.D.A supply and demand report. [Slide - October Ending Stock estimated 265 million bushels.] Pre-report guesses by analysts anticipated that soybean ending stocks would decline from the October estimate of 265 million bushels. [Slide - 2010 Production Estimates 3.43 billion.] However, 2010 production was expected to increase slightly to 3.43 billion from U.S.D.A's October number of 3.41 billion on a modest increase in the national average soybean yield. [Picture showing a truck unloading soybeans onto a barge.] Extension Economist Scott Stiles says this production increase was expected to be more than offset by an increase in exports.
[Slide - U.S.D.A. National Average 44.4 bushels per acre to 43.9 bushels per acre.] Instead of increasing the national average yield, the U.S.D.A's estimate was cut from 44.4 bushels per acre to 43.9 bushels per acre. [Slide - U.S.D.A. 2010 Crop Size 3.443 billion to 3.375 billion.] The 2010 crop size dropped from 3.443 billion bushels to 3.375 billion bushels. [Slide - U.S.D.A. 2010-2011 Ending Stock 185 million.] A combination of a smaller crop estimate and a 50 million bushel increase in exports trimmed the projected 2010 to 2011 ending stocks down to only 185 million bushels. [Slide - U.S.D.A. down 200 million tight supply.] An ending stocks number below 200 million bushels is generally viewed as a tight supply situation for soybeans. [Slide - U.S.D.A. 2008 Ending Stock 138 million, 2009 Ending Stocks 151 million.] Two years ago, the carryover was 138 million and last year it was 151 million.
[Video showing a combines in a soybean field harvesting.] Stiles says that even with record U.S. soybean crops in each of the past two years, little progress has been made toward rebuilding soybean inventories. This is largely due to growing export demand for U.S. soybeans.
[Narrator] Your Arkansas Soybean Podcast is a production of the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture and was funded in part by the Arkansas Soybean Promotion Board. For more information about soybean farming in Arkansas, contact your local county Extension office.
[Title slide - For more information contact your local county Extension office. Your Arkansas Soybean Podcast, University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, Arkansas Soybean Promotion Board]